Super Typhoon Haiyan Ravages Phillipines

The Phillipines is in a state of emergency after super typhoon Haiyan made landfall, killing more than 10,000 people.  Tacloban city, the capital of Leyte province, took the majority of the storm; the majority of its residents are now without shelter, food or water. Aid has been sent but it is being held up by blocked roads and debris. The storm is said to have affected more than 9.7 million people. At least 1,774 people are confirmed dead, with 2,500 injured and 82 missing, according to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council. Typhoons are not uncommon for the Phillipines, but locals insist that the government has not learned its lesson. In December 2012 Typhoon Bopha killed 1,067 while Thelma, the deadliest storm in Philippine history, killed 5,080 in November 1991.

Rain is making relief efforts difficult and over 660,000 people may be displaced. Material losses are said to exceed $12 million, or 5 percent of the economic output, a devastating number for Phillipines. Many countries have pledged aid and hope to intervene soon. Four out of five airports are open and accepting aid from international sources, but some say the relief effort has been delayed.

The typhoon itself made landfall on Friday, November 8 and boasted 147mph winds and is one of the largest storms in recent history. Officials estimate 10,000 deaths, as stated earlier, but have not been able to make official counts.  Many structures in the path of the storm were destroyed, and thousands plea for help. Many corpses have been found, but until an infrastructure has been established, they must lie in the streets. The World Heatlth Organization stresses the need for sanitary conditions and clean water.

This catastrophe highlights the need for proper risk prevention and disaster preparedness techniques. In class we discussed the timeframe for relief, which can be described as the golden hours. Usually the golden hours are the first 24 hours after a disaster in which rescue efforts can be made to reduce loss of life. However, in this situation, many mitigation and prevention techniques could have been applied before the storm. Some mitigation techniques could have been proper buildings that can withstand typhoons, proper warnings to evacuate affected communities, and efforts to prevent loss of life.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-11/philippines-declares-calamity-as-fresh-storm-approaches.html

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57611701/philippines-typhoon-survivors-plead-for-help-as-scale-of-devastation-becomes-clear/

Carbon dioxide injected into wells causing earthquakes

In a study performed near Snyder, Texas researchers have vound that carbon dioxide injected into oil and gas wells has caused a series of minor earthquakes. The study analyzed 93 earthquakes between March 2009 and December 2010 linked injecting and hydraulic fracturing to magnitude 3 and above earthquakes. Six temporary seismograph locations were set up and gathered data to support the study, as apart of the USArray program. Carbon dioxide is injected into mature oil fields to enhance output, in Texas, where there are over 7000 oil fields.

I found this story to be fascinating, further research indicates that the authors of the study Wei Gan and Cliff Frohlich are still in the process of studying this phenomenon and there may be a high connection between carbon dioxide injections and earthquakes. However, the phenomenon may be also related to other natural factors such as natural plate tectonics.

This phenomenon indicates that hydraulic fracturing may have a higher impact that is unknown. The implication of these impacts may be good or bad, as the minor earthquakes may release tension in whatever deep faults may occur in the area, thus reducing the impact of a future catastrophic earthquake. However, the impact may have a poor effect on the land quality, leading to issues such as mass wasting.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/04/earthquake-co2-texas-idUSL2N0IP1XR20131104

Study found in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS):

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2013/10/31/1311316110.abstract

Low birth weight linked to air pollution in Europe

A study in Europe suggests that severe air pollution can be linked to low birth rates in babies. The study is based on data collected from over 74,000 women in 12 countries over a course of 15 years. One doctor says the study is similar to those performed about smoking cessation, indicating that air pollution has a similar effect.

This is an issue as low birth rates of 5.5 lbs or less can cause increased respiratory problems and other disorders. The study found that for every increase of pollution per 5mg per cubic meter of air, the risk of low birth rate increased by 18 percent. Researchers also found that babies within higher risk areas had a smaller head circumference as well. Factors such as maternal smoking, age, height, weight and education were also taken into consideration but air particulates and traffic density were deemed a major cause in this study.

The article stipulates that if the women had been exposed to the amount of pollution set by the World Health Organization standards, at least 145 out of 50,151 babies could have a normal weight. This issue would involve preventing pregnant women from being exposed to high  pollution areas such as streets with heavy traffic. Researchers suggest that goverment policies should be in place to limit air pollution by requiring reductions in emissions by transportation.

This article was an interesting read because the study took many years to complete. This suggests that the day to day impact of air pollution is limited but over time it may be a hazard, especially to vulnerable people such as pregnant women and babies. Thus risk reduction and prevention would include reducing emissions. However, reducing emissions does not necessarily reduce the risk of global warming. As a health based risk though, this study suggests that air pollution should be reduced.  Often air pollution is neglected as a serious risk due to the fact that unless its particularly heavy, it will not affect a person on a daily basis; therefore, it is ignored and the need for transportation and heating outweighs long term health risks. I found it particularly interesting how the article related air pollution effects on newborn babies as the same effects of smoking while pregnant.

Article can be found at Aljazeera, provided by rueters:

http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2013/11/1/air-pollution-linkedtolowbirthweightineurope.html

New South Wales Bushfire disaster

 

http://au.news.yahoo.com/nsw/a/19478934/bushfire-crisis-megafire-fears/

 

 

Austrailia is in a state of emergency today as they prepare to fight over 62 bushfires, 13 of which are uncontained. The area of New south wales is under a Watch and Act order under threat of three major fires converging. The State Mine fire, Mount York Rd fire in Mount Victoria, and the Linksview Rd fire in the Springwood area are the main areas of concern for the Rural Fire Service (RFS), the ABC reports. The Rural Fire Service (RFS) has been deliberately linking fires in order to contain them and prevent an uncontained mega fire. By engaging the fires through backburning techniques the RFS hopes to contain the fires before the end of Tuesday and Wednesday when temperatures are expected to rise and winds to exceed 60-90km/h; factors that will definitely exacerbate the issue. At this time no deaths have been reported.

 

The cause of the fire is arson in particularly dry weather, multiple fires were caused by children under the age of 15 who were charged. As crews work to contain the fires, evacuated towns are at risk of looters. Over 200 homes so far have been destroyed, with insurance claims reaching almost $93 million. The state plans on sending all available fire crews to work on the bushfires, with hopes to contain the fires by Wednesday.

 

Mitigation techniques have so far included an advisement to evacuate, however no official evacuation orders have been issued. Officials warn that residents remaining will be without power and resources while the fires are being contained. Although the need to evacuate may be low at the moment, officials are taking the side of caution and using all their resources to warn residents and take precautions in case the fires turn for the worst.

 

MODIS imagery that shows the smoke plumes and highlights key fire areas.



Fire may be scary, but it would be interesting to know if they occur naturally at intervals in these areas. Long-term planning for these residents may include preparing homes for a future fire by reducing shrubbery and tree growth and constructing metal roofs. The austrailian officials have taken adequate precautions to prevent death by warning and evacuating residents.

Tropical Cyclone Phallin Threatened India, but little deaths

The tropical cyclone Phallin approached India late last week and endured over the weekend but little deaths were reported as India's infrastructure ensured many evacuations were made. Sunday showed the true power of the storm as Indian officials picked through the wreckage and assessed the overall damage. The storm was one of the most dangerous to hit the country in more than a decade and is now responsible for millions of dollars of damage.

Currently there are only 17 reported fatalities due to the natural disaster, officials expect it to rise as they come into contact with isolated locations, however considering the magnitude of the disaster and the material loss recorded, the fatalities are low. Over one million citizens were evacuated from the coast in advance to prepare for the storm. The article suggests that past historic events that had killed tens of thousands prompted officials to make necessary evacuations.

India, although greatly populated, has a government infrastructure that can adequately prepare for disaster by use of forecasting and early warning methods. The subjective risk in a country such as India would be that low income citizens in sub-standard housing would be vulnerable to Cyclones. However, the Indian Ocean is commonly at risk of such disasters and the people of India have prepared for them through experience, thus protecting those most vulnerable. Objectively the risk of high fatalities in such an incident is low.

http://news.yahoo.com/indian-officials-few-deaths-massive-cyclone-121209404.html

Hotter Climates Likely

A recent study performed by the University of Hawaii, published in the journal Nature, predict that "temperatures in a given location will be hotter by 2047. " Predictions are based off the assumption that greenhouse gas emissions will continue to rise. The study looked at historical temperature ranges and greenhouse gas output and calculated which cities will be the first to experience a high rise in temperature as early as 2020. Researchers who looked at the study speculated that as a result many coral reefs will become extinct by that time and serve as an early warning system to global climate change. 

This image was provided along with article to show when a departure from norms will occur globally.

Several skeptics debate the validity of the article and suggest that there are many big questions left unanswered. The study lacks information on human adaptability. Also the study lacks an unbiased opinion and disregards studies that suggest the opposite view, that greenhouse gas and particulate matter may be slowing the onset of climate change. Over all the general consensus is that climate change will occur regardless and that the best plan is for countries to have a mitigation and adaptation plan in effect to reduce the risk of a major disaster occuring. Objectively we can plan for climate change and adapt accordingly or make major plans now to reduce the risk by reducing fossil fuel consumption. However, as this study indicates, there is a very subjective mindset associated with climate change as well. People are either very afraid or very skeptical.

Article: Study predicts imminent 'new normal' of hotter climates.
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2013/10/9/study-predicts-imminentnewnormalofhotterclimates.html

Tropical Storm Karen Threatens States Louisiana - Florida

Tropical storm Karen is predicted to make landfall this weekend, affecting Louisiana to Florida. On Thursday the Air Force confirmed that winds of approximately 50-60mph and circulation were present in the storm, creating a cyclone event. The strength of the storm when it reaches land is yet unknown but researchers predict that the wind shear over the Gulf of Mexico may weaken the storm. At the time of publication, the article UPDATE 1-Tropical Storm Karen aims for U.S. Gulf coast by Jane Sutton for Reuters, puts the storm 500 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

 

The potential risk that this storm poses is great as the area of the Mississippi river relys on heavy use of levees. The sea level for example in New Orleans is sinking due to isotacy (when pressure is placed on the earth from glaciers, and then the plates move up or down), in the event of Hurricane Katrina, the levees broke, flooding great areas of New Orleans and surrounding towns. Thus in any hurricane situation, despite reclamation of levees, this poses a risk to those living in a levee system. However, the percieved risk of levees breaking is great due to past events. The actuality of this event occuring is unknown until landfall actually occurs.

 

Sources:

Reuters article - http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/03/storm-karen-idUSL1N0HT0JE20131003

The Weather Channel - http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/tropical-storm-hurricane-karen-20131003