Deadly Ice Storm Hits North America

 

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/chi-ice-storm,0,3227064.story

 

According to an article from Reuters news source written by Karen Brooks, a deadly ice storm has approached the midsection of United States. Hundreds and thousands are reported to be without power as ice and snow brought on by freezing temperatures has paralyzed the nation. The storm stretches from the Mexico border in Texas and progresses northeast into the Ohio valley. North of Ohio, in Illinois, Indiana and surrounding states, the winter weather advisory is still in place.

 By the end of the evening, Illinois will expect to receive an average of 5 – 11 inches of snow, with some areas receiving over a foot. In the Dallas-Fort Worth area of texas approximately 267,000 outages were reported. Over 1,900 flights have been cancelled. At least 3 deaths have been reported as a result of this storm, most are vehicular accidents and one was the result of a snow laden tree. Police and officials expect that the number may rise as the ice on the road increases, as well as the lack of heating as power outages continue.

The harsh weather is expected to continue into the weekend, with temperatures about 30 degrees lower than average.

A little repass into “Weather and society” class that I took in Spring 2013 allows me to analyze this storm. According to weather.com surface maps, there is currently a cold front that has emerged down from the north, from a polar air mass, that has affected the temperatures in Canada and United States. This cold front, using the Jetstream, has descended down into the lower states and will continue to move east. As you can see in the surface map, because the front has passed and the pressure has increased, we have several high pressure cells which will bring cool temperatures and clear days. The east coast will encounter some snow and rain with ice as a warm maritime air mass conflicts with the cool air mass.

This is significant because it shows to us that temperatures will be below normal for a few days, until another air mass arrives, hopefully bringing warmer temperatures.  Weather forecasting relates to the engineering as well as behavioral paradigm, which means it uses scientific forecasting to provide short and long term warning systems. Government officials can use this data to evaluate necessary steps to prevent secondary loss of life from storms such as weather driving conditions or loss of power. Officials can provide mitigation techniques through the use of warning systems that warn residents to stay inside, avoid driving, announcing closures, and also by increasing methods such as plowing and road de-icing.

The images below show the surface map from Weather.com as well as the corresponding jetstream which indicates the path of the storm.

 



Super Typhoon Haiyan update

Photo by Bullit Marquez/ap on cnn.com

In a brief article by cnn there is a current death toll in the Philippines of 5209 and 23404 reported as injured. At least 1582 people are still missing and the death toll is expected to rise. Over 3 million people are displaced.

http://www.cnn.com/2013/11/22/world/asia/philippines-typhoon-haiyan-deaths/

The New York Times reports that secondary threats are beginning to emerge from the typhoon's devastation such as disease and infection. With so many displaced and with destroyed homes, many are living in substandard shelter and must face the effects of new storms, leading to issues such as pneumonia. 

Many aid organizations have brought in food ad some medical supplies but the need for shelter and dry clothing is crucial. Many are living under tarps scavenged from debris, and are wearing one set of clothes, in constant rain. 

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/23/world/asia/pneumonia-a-new-threat-to-storm-battered-philippines.html?_r=0

It is often difficult to count the direct deaths of a disaster. In a case such as Typhoon Haiyan, the secondary and tertiary affects can be more deadly. Secondary affects can be building collapse. Tertiary could be disease. 

Super Typhoon Haiyan Aftermath

 

Mitigation techniques and improper goverment management has lead to Typhoon Haiyan turning into a perfect disaster. With over 600,000 homeless and starving, goverment officials blame the local goverments for the lack of aid distribution. Aid is taking much too long to arrive according the United Nations, with some aid only arriving today, a week after the storm made landfall.

The initial death toll was believed to be around 10,000, but as of today, the official death toll lies around 2300. With 20,000 people still missing, many fear that the number of deaths will rise significantly in the coming days. The international relief effort has been staggering, however the aid supplies and rescue teams are hampered by road blockages and reports of rebel attacks.

As of Thursday, the military relief from other countries is beginning to roll in, providing security however the situation is very grim for residents trying to survive inside the damaged cities. Rebels have begun to loot stores and make attacks on warehouses suppling food and aid. To make the situation worse, body collection has begun but there are many corpses still awaiting pick up that are rotting in the tropical climate. Mass burials are exacerbated by rebel attacks.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/philippines/10448420/Typhoon-Haiyan-Philippines-government-on-defensive-over-slow-response.html

Super Typhoon Haiyan Overview

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/files/2013/11/rbtop0-haiyan.jpg

It has been almost a week since the devastation of Super typhoon Haiyan. This was one of the strongest storms in history, ranking at 4th in the list of strong tropical cyclones. Also this storm was the thritieth named storm of the region. According to the behavioural paradigm, the science behind the storm indicates that this cyclone was a category 5 on the saffir-simpson scale, which measures the strength of tropical cyclones and hurricanes. With sustained winds of up to 145 mph, and 1 minute winds of over 195 mph (gusts of 235 mph) it is no surprise that this storm is capable of causing catastrophic destruction. The majority of damage and death caused by this storm is due to the storm surge that occured as the typhoon approached. With a low pressure of 895 mb, the storm had a predicted storm wall of 15 meters in height, the textbook lists this as "Catastrophic".

According to our textbook, some disasters occur due to the swiss-cheese model. The swiss cheese model accounts for all the factors that lead to an event, like a block of swiss cheese that has holes, the holes represent a perfect formation of disasterous factors. In the case of super storm Haiyan, the factors include poor infrastructure, warning/evacuation, poor rescue/aid techniques and other previous disasters. To address the last one first as a precursor, the Bohol region of the Phillipines was affected by a 7.2 magnitude earthquake previously on Oct 15, causing approximately 200 deaths in the region, damaging homes and displacing many residents.

Poor infrastructure resulted in poor housing situations and improper buildings, this contributed to the event because the homes and emergency shelters were not adequate to withstand a storm of that magnitude, causing severe damage to buildings. The warning system was also inadequate, many sources indicate that some areas prone to flooding and landslides were evacuated, and that a level 1 (low threat) warning had been issued, but it was not until landfall that a level 4 (high threat) warning had been issued, indicating a lack of warning and preparation to evacuate all residents. Lastly, post event aid was slow due to weather and lack of communication, leading to a failure to provide aid within the golden hours (first 24-48 hours of a disaster). Much of the aid from international sources lies waiting at airports as roads are still blocked with debris. Some rescue teams from other countries have not even arrived until today. As a result, there has been a loss of population management resulting in looting and violence, as people become desperate for help.

The increasing frequency of storms such as Haiyan and Sandy are an indication that a broader factor is in play. According to the complexity paradigm, the global earth systems such as the atmosphere, biosphere etc are all interconneced, meaning that changes in one region can affect other regions. For example drought in Africa can cause dust storms which enter the atmosphere and cause rainstorms in the Americas. The increase in global temperature will create more typhoons as well as drought in other regions. Thus, nations should take these incidents as warnings to better prepare thier countries with proper infrastructure, warning, education, and post event aid planning.

Super Typhoon Haiyan Ravages Phillipines

The Phillipines is in a state of emergency after super typhoon Haiyan made landfall, killing more than 10,000 people.  Tacloban city, the capital of Leyte province, took the majority of the storm; the majority of its residents are now without shelter, food or water. Aid has been sent but it is being held up by blocked roads and debris. The storm is said to have affected more than 9.7 million people. At least 1,774 people are confirmed dead, with 2,500 injured and 82 missing, according to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council. Typhoons are not uncommon for the Phillipines, but locals insist that the government has not learned its lesson. In December 2012 Typhoon Bopha killed 1,067 while Thelma, the deadliest storm in Philippine history, killed 5,080 in November 1991.

Rain is making relief efforts difficult and over 660,000 people may be displaced. Material losses are said to exceed $12 million, or 5 percent of the economic output, a devastating number for Phillipines. Many countries have pledged aid and hope to intervene soon. Four out of five airports are open and accepting aid from international sources, but some say the relief effort has been delayed.

The typhoon itself made landfall on Friday, November 8 and boasted 147mph winds and is one of the largest storms in recent history. Officials estimate 10,000 deaths, as stated earlier, but have not been able to make official counts.  Many structures in the path of the storm were destroyed, and thousands plea for help. Many corpses have been found, but until an infrastructure has been established, they must lie in the streets. The World Heatlth Organization stresses the need for sanitary conditions and clean water.

This catastrophe highlights the need for proper risk prevention and disaster preparedness techniques. In class we discussed the timeframe for relief, which can be described as the golden hours. Usually the golden hours are the first 24 hours after a disaster in which rescue efforts can be made to reduce loss of life. However, in this situation, many mitigation and prevention techniques could have been applied before the storm. Some mitigation techniques could have been proper buildings that can withstand typhoons, proper warnings to evacuate affected communities, and efforts to prevent loss of life.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-11/philippines-declares-calamity-as-fresh-storm-approaches.html

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57611701/philippines-typhoon-survivors-plead-for-help-as-scale-of-devastation-becomes-clear/

Carbon dioxide injected into wells causing earthquakes

In a study performed near Snyder, Texas researchers have vound that carbon dioxide injected into oil and gas wells has caused a series of minor earthquakes. The study analyzed 93 earthquakes between March 2009 and December 2010 linked injecting and hydraulic fracturing to magnitude 3 and above earthquakes. Six temporary seismograph locations were set up and gathered data to support the study, as apart of the USArray program. Carbon dioxide is injected into mature oil fields to enhance output, in Texas, where there are over 7000 oil fields.

I found this story to be fascinating, further research indicates that the authors of the study Wei Gan and Cliff Frohlich are still in the process of studying this phenomenon and there may be a high connection between carbon dioxide injections and earthquakes. However, the phenomenon may be also related to other natural factors such as natural plate tectonics.

This phenomenon indicates that hydraulic fracturing may have a higher impact that is unknown. The implication of these impacts may be good or bad, as the minor earthquakes may release tension in whatever deep faults may occur in the area, thus reducing the impact of a future catastrophic earthquake. However, the impact may have a poor effect on the land quality, leading to issues such as mass wasting.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/04/earthquake-co2-texas-idUSL2N0IP1XR20131104

Study found in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS):

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2013/10/31/1311316110.abstract

Low birth weight linked to air pollution in Europe

A study in Europe suggests that severe air pollution can be linked to low birth rates in babies. The study is based on data collected from over 74,000 women in 12 countries over a course of 15 years. One doctor says the study is similar to those performed about smoking cessation, indicating that air pollution has a similar effect.

This is an issue as low birth rates of 5.5 lbs or less can cause increased respiratory problems and other disorders. The study found that for every increase of pollution per 5mg per cubic meter of air, the risk of low birth rate increased by 18 percent. Researchers also found that babies within higher risk areas had a smaller head circumference as well. Factors such as maternal smoking, age, height, weight and education were also taken into consideration but air particulates and traffic density were deemed a major cause in this study.

The article stipulates that if the women had been exposed to the amount of pollution set by the World Health Organization standards, at least 145 out of 50,151 babies could have a normal weight. This issue would involve preventing pregnant women from being exposed to high  pollution areas such as streets with heavy traffic. Researchers suggest that goverment policies should be in place to limit air pollution by requiring reductions in emissions by transportation.

This article was an interesting read because the study took many years to complete. This suggests that the day to day impact of air pollution is limited but over time it may be a hazard, especially to vulnerable people such as pregnant women and babies. Thus risk reduction and prevention would include reducing emissions. However, reducing emissions does not necessarily reduce the risk of global warming. As a health based risk though, this study suggests that air pollution should be reduced.  Often air pollution is neglected as a serious risk due to the fact that unless its particularly heavy, it will not affect a person on a daily basis; therefore, it is ignored and the need for transportation and heating outweighs long term health risks. I found it particularly interesting how the article related air pollution effects on newborn babies as the same effects of smoking while pregnant.

Article can be found at Aljazeera, provided by rueters:

http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2013/11/1/air-pollution-linkedtolowbirthweightineurope.html

New South Wales Bushfire disaster

 

http://au.news.yahoo.com/nsw/a/19478934/bushfire-crisis-megafire-fears/

 

 

Austrailia is in a state of emergency today as they prepare to fight over 62 bushfires, 13 of which are uncontained. The area of New south wales is under a Watch and Act order under threat of three major fires converging. The State Mine fire, Mount York Rd fire in Mount Victoria, and the Linksview Rd fire in the Springwood area are the main areas of concern for the Rural Fire Service (RFS), the ABC reports. The Rural Fire Service (RFS) has been deliberately linking fires in order to contain them and prevent an uncontained mega fire. By engaging the fires through backburning techniques the RFS hopes to contain the fires before the end of Tuesday and Wednesday when temperatures are expected to rise and winds to exceed 60-90km/h; factors that will definitely exacerbate the issue. At this time no deaths have been reported.

 

The cause of the fire is arson in particularly dry weather, multiple fires were caused by children under the age of 15 who were charged. As crews work to contain the fires, evacuated towns are at risk of looters. Over 200 homes so far have been destroyed, with insurance claims reaching almost $93 million. The state plans on sending all available fire crews to work on the bushfires, with hopes to contain the fires by Wednesday.

 

Mitigation techniques have so far included an advisement to evacuate, however no official evacuation orders have been issued. Officials warn that residents remaining will be without power and resources while the fires are being contained. Although the need to evacuate may be low at the moment, officials are taking the side of caution and using all their resources to warn residents and take precautions in case the fires turn for the worst.

 

MODIS imagery that shows the smoke plumes and highlights key fire areas.



Fire may be scary, but it would be interesting to know if they occur naturally at intervals in these areas. Long-term planning for these residents may include preparing homes for a future fire by reducing shrubbery and tree growth and constructing metal roofs. The austrailian officials have taken adequate precautions to prevent death by warning and evacuating residents.

Tropical Cyclone Phallin Threatened India, but little deaths

The tropical cyclone Phallin approached India late last week and endured over the weekend but little deaths were reported as India's infrastructure ensured many evacuations were made. Sunday showed the true power of the storm as Indian officials picked through the wreckage and assessed the overall damage. The storm was one of the most dangerous to hit the country in more than a decade and is now responsible for millions of dollars of damage.

Currently there are only 17 reported fatalities due to the natural disaster, officials expect it to rise as they come into contact with isolated locations, however considering the magnitude of the disaster and the material loss recorded, the fatalities are low. Over one million citizens were evacuated from the coast in advance to prepare for the storm. The article suggests that past historic events that had killed tens of thousands prompted officials to make necessary evacuations.

India, although greatly populated, has a government infrastructure that can adequately prepare for disaster by use of forecasting and early warning methods. The subjective risk in a country such as India would be that low income citizens in sub-standard housing would be vulnerable to Cyclones. However, the Indian Ocean is commonly at risk of such disasters and the people of India have prepared for them through experience, thus protecting those most vulnerable. Objectively the risk of high fatalities in such an incident is low.

http://news.yahoo.com/indian-officials-few-deaths-massive-cyclone-121209404.html

Hotter Climates Likely

A recent study performed by the University of Hawaii, published in the journal Nature, predict that "temperatures in a given location will be hotter by 2047. " Predictions are based off the assumption that greenhouse gas emissions will continue to rise. The study looked at historical temperature ranges and greenhouse gas output and calculated which cities will be the first to experience a high rise in temperature as early as 2020. Researchers who looked at the study speculated that as a result many coral reefs will become extinct by that time and serve as an early warning system to global climate change. 

This image was provided along with article to show when a departure from norms will occur globally.

Several skeptics debate the validity of the article and suggest that there are many big questions left unanswered. The study lacks information on human adaptability. Also the study lacks an unbiased opinion and disregards studies that suggest the opposite view, that greenhouse gas and particulate matter may be slowing the onset of climate change. Over all the general consensus is that climate change will occur regardless and that the best plan is for countries to have a mitigation and adaptation plan in effect to reduce the risk of a major disaster occuring. Objectively we can plan for climate change and adapt accordingly or make major plans now to reduce the risk by reducing fossil fuel consumption. However, as this study indicates, there is a very subjective mindset associated with climate change as well. People are either very afraid or very skeptical.

Article: Study predicts imminent 'new normal' of hotter climates.
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2013/10/9/study-predicts-imminentnewnormalofhotterclimates.html

Tropical Storm Karen Threatens States Louisiana - Florida

Tropical storm Karen is predicted to make landfall this weekend, affecting Louisiana to Florida. On Thursday the Air Force confirmed that winds of approximately 50-60mph and circulation were present in the storm, creating a cyclone event. The strength of the storm when it reaches land is yet unknown but researchers predict that the wind shear over the Gulf of Mexico may weaken the storm. At the time of publication, the article UPDATE 1-Tropical Storm Karen aims for U.S. Gulf coast by Jane Sutton for Reuters, puts the storm 500 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

 

The potential risk that this storm poses is great as the area of the Mississippi river relys on heavy use of levees. The sea level for example in New Orleans is sinking due to isotacy (when pressure is placed on the earth from glaciers, and then the plates move up or down), in the event of Hurricane Katrina, the levees broke, flooding great areas of New Orleans and surrounding towns. Thus in any hurricane situation, despite reclamation of levees, this poses a risk to those living in a levee system. However, the percieved risk of levees breaking is great due to past events. The actuality of this event occuring is unknown until landfall actually occurs.

 

Sources:

Reuters article - http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/03/storm-karen-idUSL1N0HT0JE20131003

The Weather Channel - http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/tropical-storm-hurricane-karen-20131003

Hurricane Ingrid and Tropical Storm Manuel hit Mexico

A stranded bus is seen as cars make their way through a flooded street in Acapulco on 15 September, 2013 BBC.com

This weekend Mexico was hit on either coast by two major storms. Hurricane Ingrid assaulted the eastern coast and Tropical Storm Manuel pummeled the west coast. According to the article Mexico hit by Hurricane Ingrid and Tropical Storm Manuel by the BBC, the dual attack killed over 40 people in flooding and landslide incidents. Hurricane Ingrid is expected to cause over 15 inches in rainfall and produce winds that exceed 55km/hr. 6000 people have evacuated to emergency shelters and 20,000 homes are without power. The last time two storms hit Mexico within 24 hours was in 1958.

Lower developed areas, such as some of the states in Mexico that suffer from poor infrastructure, are more vulnerable to the risk of flash floods and landslides. Although these combined storms were severe, the fatalities produced could have been lessened. For example in homes with proper building regulation, the risk of collapse is greatly reduced. Also proper warning systems and evacuation techniques may have saved more lives. Violent storms such as these are more common due to climate change and we can expect to see more in the future.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-24098184

Climate Change and Human Conflict

In the article Climate Change may increase violence, study shows by Elizabeth Landau for CNN climate change is discussed as a catalyst for increased violence. According to the article, a look at approximately 60 studies show that by 2050, risk of intergroup conflict will rise 50%. "When temperatures rise, so does aggression..." the studies focus on the fact that hotter temperatures will create violence, especially in areas of low income. The theory behind this hypothesis revolves around the relationship between weather and economy. The more rainfall or lack of rainfall can severely affect the agricultural outcome. Thus if the main source of income (agriculture) for a society is impacted, the local populace may have a sour disposition, creating an increase domestic violence cases or overall conflict.  The study also notes when people are exposed to new situations such as unusual weather, their reasoning may be impaired, creating conflicts from misunderstanding.

This article was interesting, for me it had a biased tone, and lacked scientific evidence to back up claims. It feels as though the author was attempting to play off stereotypical knowledge of climate change. For instance, they only mentioned temperature increase, and rainfall as specific climate forces; while it would be good to note that climate change can take on other forms such as cooling as well. The overall hypothesis is sound and makes sense. It would be interesting to look into this matter further.

Climate change is not going anywhere and it would be in humanities best interest to adapt and prevent further issues. The human impact that this article suggests is that crime and violence will increase greatly as climate changes occur. More knowledge about climate change is needed to prevent issues of ignorance. Also as stated in our textbook, collaboration between more developed countries and less developed countries is required to mitigate the effect of these hazards on less developed countries.

http://www.cnn.com/2013/08/01/us/climate-change-violence/index.html?hpt=us_bn1

Reflective Skyscraper in London creates hazard

Walkie-Talkie Skyscraper 20 Fenchurch St, London. Curved, reflective siding creates magnified solar reflections which cause burning.

In an article published by the BBC Who, what why: How does a skyscraper melt a car? on September 3rd, 2013 a rising issue is addressed with urban development.

A new skyscraper under construction in London has been creating quite a stir as it's reflective siding has been "scorching locals" and melting car parts. The reflection of the sun off the mirrored sides has created a magnified reflection of the incoming solar energy. A citizen, Martin Lindsay, parked his Jaguar on the city streets and returned 2 hours later to find that parts of his car had melted. Much like a magnifying glass used to burn grass by children, the skyscrapers design and siding have created an uncommon concern among locals.

In another article by the BBC, Walkie-Talkie Skyscraper: Screens up after car melted September 4th, 2013, the matter is addressed by developers and more concerns were raised. One local retailer describes how the building has burned holes in his carpets. This is not a singluar issue, the article states that the Vdara Hotel in Las Vegas was dubbed the "Death Ray Hotel" in 2010 after guests complained about being burned by the sunlight reflected off the hotel. The developers of the London skyscraper, Land Securities, claims they will address the issue by coating the windows with "a chemical glaze" and also by erecting a mesh over Eastcheap street, where the burning had occured.

This issue is a recent development with the construction of high level buildings that incorporate a unique design and a reflective siding. Normally during certain seasons this will not be an issue as the sun will not be at a peak height to cause issues of reflections. During the late summer however, the sun is at a peak that can cause the highest amount of solar insolation. Insolation is defined as the amount of electromagnetic energy or solar radiation on the surface of the earth, or basically, how much sunlight is shining down on us. (apricus.com). The earth is typically hottest when it is farthest from the sun. Therefore this has an impact on humans because we are constantly developing and desire to build more structures, as we build we will have consider the complex interrelationships that our environment and structures create.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-23930675
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-23957986
Image link: http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/69626000/jpg/_69626637_69626636.jpg

More info about solar insolation:
http://www.apricus.com/html/solar_collector_insolation.htm