New South Wales Bushfire disaster

 

http://au.news.yahoo.com/nsw/a/19478934/bushfire-crisis-megafire-fears/

 

 

Austrailia is in a state of emergency today as they prepare to fight over 62 bushfires, 13 of which are uncontained. The area of New south wales is under a Watch and Act order under threat of three major fires converging. The State Mine fire, Mount York Rd fire in Mount Victoria, and the Linksview Rd fire in the Springwood area are the main areas of concern for the Rural Fire Service (RFS), the ABC reports. The Rural Fire Service (RFS) has been deliberately linking fires in order to contain them and prevent an uncontained mega fire. By engaging the fires through backburning techniques the RFS hopes to contain the fires before the end of Tuesday and Wednesday when temperatures are expected to rise and winds to exceed 60-90km/h; factors that will definitely exacerbate the issue. At this time no deaths have been reported.

 

The cause of the fire is arson in particularly dry weather, multiple fires were caused by children under the age of 15 who were charged. As crews work to contain the fires, evacuated towns are at risk of looters. Over 200 homes so far have been destroyed, with insurance claims reaching almost $93 million. The state plans on sending all available fire crews to work on the bushfires, with hopes to contain the fires by Wednesday.

 

Mitigation techniques have so far included an advisement to evacuate, however no official evacuation orders have been issued. Officials warn that residents remaining will be without power and resources while the fires are being contained. Although the need to evacuate may be low at the moment, officials are taking the side of caution and using all their resources to warn residents and take precautions in case the fires turn for the worst.

 

MODIS imagery that shows the smoke plumes and highlights key fire areas.



Fire may be scary, but it would be interesting to know if they occur naturally at intervals in these areas. Long-term planning for these residents may include preparing homes for a future fire by reducing shrubbery and tree growth and constructing metal roofs. The austrailian officials have taken adequate precautions to prevent death by warning and evacuating residents.

Tropical Cyclone Phallin Threatened India, but little deaths

The tropical cyclone Phallin approached India late last week and endured over the weekend but little deaths were reported as India's infrastructure ensured many evacuations were made. Sunday showed the true power of the storm as Indian officials picked through the wreckage and assessed the overall damage. The storm was one of the most dangerous to hit the country in more than a decade and is now responsible for millions of dollars of damage.

Currently there are only 17 reported fatalities due to the natural disaster, officials expect it to rise as they come into contact with isolated locations, however considering the magnitude of the disaster and the material loss recorded, the fatalities are low. Over one million citizens were evacuated from the coast in advance to prepare for the storm. The article suggests that past historic events that had killed tens of thousands prompted officials to make necessary evacuations.

India, although greatly populated, has a government infrastructure that can adequately prepare for disaster by use of forecasting and early warning methods. The subjective risk in a country such as India would be that low income citizens in sub-standard housing would be vulnerable to Cyclones. However, the Indian Ocean is commonly at risk of such disasters and the people of India have prepared for them through experience, thus protecting those most vulnerable. Objectively the risk of high fatalities in such an incident is low.

http://news.yahoo.com/indian-officials-few-deaths-massive-cyclone-121209404.html

Hotter Climates Likely

A recent study performed by the University of Hawaii, published in the journal Nature, predict that "temperatures in a given location will be hotter by 2047. " Predictions are based off the assumption that greenhouse gas emissions will continue to rise. The study looked at historical temperature ranges and greenhouse gas output and calculated which cities will be the first to experience a high rise in temperature as early as 2020. Researchers who looked at the study speculated that as a result many coral reefs will become extinct by that time and serve as an early warning system to global climate change. 

This image was provided along with article to show when a departure from norms will occur globally.

Several skeptics debate the validity of the article and suggest that there are many big questions left unanswered. The study lacks information on human adaptability. Also the study lacks an unbiased opinion and disregards studies that suggest the opposite view, that greenhouse gas and particulate matter may be slowing the onset of climate change. Over all the general consensus is that climate change will occur regardless and that the best plan is for countries to have a mitigation and adaptation plan in effect to reduce the risk of a major disaster occuring. Objectively we can plan for climate change and adapt accordingly or make major plans now to reduce the risk by reducing fossil fuel consumption. However, as this study indicates, there is a very subjective mindset associated with climate change as well. People are either very afraid or very skeptical.

Article: Study predicts imminent 'new normal' of hotter climates.
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2013/10/9/study-predicts-imminentnewnormalofhotterclimates.html

Tropical Storm Karen Threatens States Louisiana - Florida

Tropical storm Karen is predicted to make landfall this weekend, affecting Louisiana to Florida. On Thursday the Air Force confirmed that winds of approximately 50-60mph and circulation were present in the storm, creating a cyclone event. The strength of the storm when it reaches land is yet unknown but researchers predict that the wind shear over the Gulf of Mexico may weaken the storm. At the time of publication, the article UPDATE 1-Tropical Storm Karen aims for U.S. Gulf coast by Jane Sutton for Reuters, puts the storm 500 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

 

The potential risk that this storm poses is great as the area of the Mississippi river relys on heavy use of levees. The sea level for example in New Orleans is sinking due to isotacy (when pressure is placed on the earth from glaciers, and then the plates move up or down), in the event of Hurricane Katrina, the levees broke, flooding great areas of New Orleans and surrounding towns. Thus in any hurricane situation, despite reclamation of levees, this poses a risk to those living in a levee system. However, the percieved risk of levees breaking is great due to past events. The actuality of this event occuring is unknown until landfall actually occurs.

 

Sources:

Reuters article - http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/03/storm-karen-idUSL1N0HT0JE20131003

The Weather Channel - http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/tropical-storm-hurricane-karen-20131003